THE STARS ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS!!!!!!!!!!!
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| Hey, we can dream, can't we? |
Okay. Maybe I'm a little late on that front, but it has been as much a whirlwind week for me as it has for the Dallas Stars. Alas, I'm back to break down the looming showdown between the Stars and their former Pacific Division rivals, the Anaheim Ducks, in what, under the new playoff format, is the Western Conference Divisional Semifinals.
Here's the schedule for the Green Machine and Quack Attack:
Wednesday, April 16: at Anaheim - 9:00 pm - FSSW, NBCSN
Friday, April 18: at Anaheim - 9:00 pm - FSSW, NBCSN
Monday, April 21: at Dallas - 8:30 pm - TXA Ch. 21, NBCSN
Wednesday, April 23: at Dallas - 8:00 pm - FSSW, CNBC
Friday, April 25: at Anaheim - 9:30 pm* - FSSW, NBCSN
Sunday, April 27 at Dallas - TBA* - FSSW
Tuesday, April 29 at Anaheim - TBA* - FSSW
All times Central. * -if necessary
NOTE: Under the new playoff format, the winner of this series will for sure take on the winner of the Sharks-Kings series. In the past the teams were re-seeded at the conclusion of the first round and matched based on rank again.
In my opinion and that of many NHL minds, this series could be won or lost in multiple ways. The Stars and Ducks seem to match up quite evenly in regards to star-power (no pun intended) and offense from the blue line. However, beyond those two parts of the game, both sides have distinct advantages and disadvantages that will need to be exploited if they are to win the series. Here's each sector of the roster in a nutshell along with a decision on who has the edge.
Biggest Weapons/Top Line: This is where all the fun is going to take place in this series. These two clubs each have one of the league's most electrifying duos, each with the potential to put their team on their backs and carry them to victory. For Anaheim, look no further than Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. The captain of the Ducks, Getzlaf, has racked up 31 goals and 87 points, the latter stat good for second in the NHL this season behind only Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby. His teammate Perry hasn't done too shabby either, potting 43 goals and contributing 82 points, the former stat ranking second in the NHL behind only Washington's Alex Ovechkin. If these two can get into a rhythm early on, they could make this a short series for Dallas. However, the Stars have a duo of their own who could just as easily do the same for Anaheim. Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are about as explosive a pair as you will find in this league. When they get a favorable defensive matchup, they are extremely hard to slow down because of their unique ability to balance patience with the puck and relentlessness around the net. Seguin's 37 goals and 84 points rank 5th and 4th in the NHL respectively, and Benn's 34 goals and 79 points are good for 9th and 10th overall in their respective categories.
Who has the edge? There is no separating them until they hit the ice and one pair proves that they deserve to be in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. EVEN.
Depth Scoring: After Getzlaf/Perry and Benn/Seguin, production on the forward lines drops off considerably for both of these teams. However, the Ducks clearly have true second, third (checking), and fourth lines, whereas Dallas just has three secondary lines with slightly different jobs. Anaheim's depth scoring is led by centers Nick Bonino and Andrew Cogliano, who have 22 and 21 goals on the season, respectively. No one on the Stars not named Benn or Seguin has any more than 17, the total that Ryan Garbutt has accumulated thus far. Garbutt currently sits one ahead of both Cody Eakin and Erik Cole, who are tied at 16 goals on the year. On the other hand, the total number of players on each side with 10 or more goals is quite close, as Anaheim has nine and Dallas eight. Thus, it is my conclusion that it is the players currently in the 10-20 goal range will play a very significant role in deciding who wins this series. If the depth lines can pick up some of the slack for the top line for one team, that squad will have a very good shot at moving on. Last but not least, I cannot talk about depth scoring without giving the Finnish Flash a shout out! Teemu Selanne, who announced that he will retire at the end of this season, has just nine goals this season, but he has scored against the Stars and has a reputation as a Dallas-killer. Watch out for this guy, you know he will be motivated to get one last shot at a Stanley Cup before he rides off into the sunset.
Who has the edge? The Stars can get depth scoring, but can they obtain any vestige of consistency in this department? The Ducks have had it all year and will look to continue to exploit it in the playoffs. ANAHEIM.
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| The ageless wonder and Star-killer is finally hanging up his skates. |
Defensemen- Neither the Stars nor the Ducks is particularly known for their defensive prowess, but this series will come down to which team's defensemen can shut down the other's top two players as well as chip in from the offensive blue line. The Stars have seen a renaissance take place in the form of Alex Goligoski. The man they call Goose is currently third on the team in scoring with 42 points and seems to have at least started to leave behind the stigma associated with his acquisition via the James Neal trade. His partner, Trevor Daley, has had a career year too. The longest-tenured Star on the roster, Daley has set a career-high with nine goals this season. Their offensive output will be countered by the Anaheim's pairing of Cam Fowler and Hampus Lindholm. One of the brightest young defensive talents in the Western Conference, Fowler put up 36 points in just 70 games and represented the United States at the Sochi Olympics. Lindholm has added 30 points as well, making their pairing one of the most dangerous offense-oriented blueline duos in the NHL. Moving on to the defensive side of things, the Stars will utilize the pair of Brenden Dillon and Jordie Benn to counter the brunt of Getzlaf and Perry's assault. Dillon is nursing a lower-body injury and did not practice Tuesday, but I am confident that he will be in the lineup tonight. Their counterparts will include a very familiar face, as former Star Stephane Robidas will take the ice for Anaheim next to Francois Beauchemin. Robidas, who was acquired by the Ducks at the deadline in exchange for a conditional draft pick, surely has plenty of insight on Jamie Benn, Seguin, and Dillon that he is sharing with head coach Bruce Boudreau. He could very easily be an x-factor in this series.
Who has the edge? Neither team is particularly strong defensively and both clubs will be looking for offensive contributions from the blue line. EVEN.
Goaltending- In short terms, Anaheim's situation in the crease is a very fluid one. Coach Boudreau has still not named a starter for the postseason, and speculation abounds as to whether the veteran Jonas Hiller, the rookie sensation Frederik Andersen, or the very green rookie John Gibson will get the nod. My money is on Andersen, as Hiller not only has struggled mightily as of late but also was not even on the bench for the team's last few games of the regular season. Also, Hiller is 0-2 this year against the Stars over the course of three starts, in which he surrendered a total of nine goals. Andersen bailed him out the first time the Stars faced the Ducks back in October (also the last time Dallas lost to a Pacific Division team in regulation). On the Dallas side of things, there is no such controversy. Kari Lehtonen is primed and ready to carry his team throughout this series. While the Big Finn's GAA (2.41) and Save% (.919) numbers may not be all that stellar, one must consider the fact that he has made the second-most saves in all of hockey while making the most starts of any netminder. He has little playoff experience, with his last taste of postseason play coming with Atlanta way back in 2007 (a single series in which he lost two games and his team ended up getting swept), but this has done little to trouble the coaching staff, who are confident that he won't be fazed by whatever is shot his way.
Who has the edge? No question here. DALLAS.
Special Teams- A surprising statistic emerges when examining the power play and penalty kill of these two clubs: neither team is top ten in either category. Anaheim and Dallas both rank middle of the pack on the power play (#22 ANA- 16.0%, #23 DAL- 15.9%), which is somewhat surprising for a deep, high-powered offense like that of the Ducks. Dallas' main problem has been consistency on the man-advantage. If the Stars can find any vestige of it during this series, they will have a very good shot at moving on. On the penalty kill, Anaheim is 13th in the league and Dallas is only 21st, but their numbers are still quite similar with percentages of 82.2 and 81.4 respectively. Anaheim had great success on the power play in their first game and a half against the Stars, but it disappeared in the third period of the second meeting, never to return. If Dallas can stay out of the box, Getzlaf and Perry will see their number of scoring chances decline significantly.
Who has the edge? Your guess is as good as mine. EVEN.
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| That face is priceless. |
Coaching- Both Lindy Ruff and Bruce Boudreau have been here before. Ruff, in his first season behind the Stars' bench, took Buffalo to a Stanley Cup Final and numerous Eastern Conference Finals in his fifteen years with the club. Boudreau, currently in his seventh season as an NHL head coach, took over the Washington Capitals in 2007-08 and turned them into a perennial top seed in the East, he has done the same in his time in Anaheim. However, one thing stands out about both of his tenures. Come playoff time, Boudreau's clubs tend to underachieve. One year, his Capitals, a number one seed, lost to eighth-seeded Montreal after being up three games to one. And another year, they squandered a 3-0 series lead for the second time in the club's history. Last year, in the lockout-shortened campaign, his Ducks took the second seed in the west but lost in seven games to the seventh-seeded Detroit Red Wings. These results have led some to question whether he is a big game coach and whether he will ever be in charge of a Stanley Cup champion. However, no one can question his experience nor that of Lindy Ruff, so deciding who has the edge in this category will probably have to be done as the series goes along.
Who has the edge? Decide for yourself. EVEN.
MY PICK: Homerism set aside, my gut feeling is that the Stars rise to the occaision and use their superior speed to throw the Ducks off their game. Kari Lehtonen has to have a big series for the Stars to be successful, and I am confident that he will. Stars in six.
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| Get it done, boys! |
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