UEFA Champions League 2014/15 Group Stage Predictions

If there is any event that has the same prominence as the World Cup, it's the UEFA Champions League. If you ask some players, they will tell you that winning the Champions League is just as important (sometimes more important) as winning the World Cup. For those unfamiliar with the Champions League, let me give you a quick run down. Basically, the competition is exactly what it sounds like: a league where the best teams in Europe compete to see who is the best. The format is somewhat complex at the beginning, but I'm confident you'll understand it better in the next few sentences. Fifty-three associations enter the Champions League. Different countries have different co-efficients based on past season performances of club teams from that country. That is why the Premier League, Bundesliga, and La Liga have 4 teams in the competition. This is also why it makes sense for fans to cheer for other clubs from the same country, even if they are bitter rivals.  The lowest ranked countries begin a qualifying campaign in late July. There are four rounds of qualifying before lower ranked teams finally reach the group stages. Most of the teams you're familiar with enter directly into the group stage, which begins in September. That's the phase we're at right now: 32 teams sorted into 8 groups of 4. The top two teams from each group advance to the knockout stages, while the third place team goes to the Europa League knockout stages. Teams are also seeded for the draw, this time based on the individual clubs' past performances in European competitions. That is why Liverpool were in the third seeding pot, they didn't play in Europe at all last season. The most successful Champions League team of all time is Real Madrid, who have won the competition 10 times, including last year's title. Since 1992, when the current format was introduced, no team has defended their title. Without further ado, let's dive into this year's groups.


Group A
  
The first group features last year's runners up Atletico Madrid, and Swedish side Malmo FF, who make their very first Champions League appearance. Atletico will be favored to win the group, and their new signing Mario Mandzukic is already settling in very nicely. Diego Costa, Filipe Luis, and Thibault Courtois are big losses, but Atletico is a deep team. The group also features Italian champions Juventus, who will look for redemption after exiting in the group stages last year. Greek champions Olympiacos could be a dark horse in this group, after making it to the final 16 last season. Malmo will be lucky just to get a win or two, but the financial rewards will make up for it.

Prediction: Atletico, Juventus, Olympiacos, Malmo

Group B

This group features defending champion Real Madrid, who will look to be the first team to defend their title under the current format. The group also features Bulgarian champions Ludogorets Razgrad, who appear in the Champions League for the first time. The Bulgarian team made it to the group stages in dramatic fashion, when center back Cosmin Monti was forced to play goalie for the penalty shootout. Liverpool return to the Champions League after a 5 year absence, and have been handed a tricky draw. Basel famously ended Manchester United's Champions League run two years ago, and the Swiss champions will give Liverpool a run for their money. I also think Ludogorets could be a player, away games in Eastern Europe are usually very hostile. This could be a group where two teams finish in second tied on points. I'll give Liverpool the the slight edge.

Prediction: Real Madrid, Liverpool, Basel, Ludogorets Razgrad

Group C

This group is probably the most balanced, with all four teams legitimately believing they can advance. Benfica reached the Europa League Final last season, and set all kinds of records winning the Portuguese League. Zenit finished with only 6 points in last year's group, but still advanced to the final 16, they are currently in excellent form having won their first 5 league games. Leverkusen are also in good form in Germany, they'll look to build on last year's final 16 appearance. Finally, Monaco return to the Champions League for the first time since 2004, when they were runners up. They lost two huge players in Radamel Falcao and James Rodriguez, but they still have enough quality to compete in this group. Honestly, it's a total toss up here, and if you want to watch drama and goals, this is your group.


Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen, Zenit St. Petersburg, Benfica, Monaco

Group D

For the second consecutive season, and 3rd in 4 years, Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund are in the same Champions League group. Many experts agree that the two teams are actually very similar, slightly lower budgets, full of young talent, and always seemingly talking about the future. The other two teams in this group are certainly not pushovers, but it's not the group of death like it was last year. Because these teams aren't as deep as some of the elite in this competition, player fitness will play a huge role. I'm going to say that no more than one team goes to Turkey and beats Galatasaray...it's one of the most hostile environments to play in. Anderlecht are the defending Belgian champions, which is a bigger feat than you may think. They'll likely be fighting for a spot in the Europa League

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund, Arsenal, Galatasaray, Anderlecht

Group E

There isn't a true group of death this year, but this group is the toughest in my opinion. Bayern Munich and Manchester City have great teams, great coaching, and great depth. CSKA Moscow are also a solid team, and having to play in Moscow at this time of year means any weather conditions are possible. Then there's Roma, who return to the Champions League after missing out the past few years. They've enjoyed a fine start to their season and will look to shock people in this group. Unfortunately for them, they're up against two of the top ten teams in the world. I'm going to pick a small upset here as far as who wins the group.

Prediction: Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Roma, CSKA

Group F

This is the second hardest group, and like the one before it, there are two top ten giants. Barcelona will be favored to win the group, and they've been taking care of business in the league, despite not making huge splashes in the transfer window (I'm not counting Suarez because he hasn't played yet). PSG on the other hand made some questionable moves this summer (I'm looking at the 50 million they paid for David Luiz) and have started their domestic league with some shaky results. Ajax get another tough test, it seems like the Dutch feeder club can never catch a break with these draws. Also, don't overlook APOEL. They Cypriot team made the quarterfinals of this competition just three seasons ago (albeit from a weak group). I think you'll be surprised at how close this group may end up, and Ajax have a decent chance at finishing second if PSG doesn't find their form

Prediction: Barcelona, PSG, Ajax, APOEL

Group G

Another group with a team making it's debut, this time it's Slovenian outfit Maribor. Like the other debutants, the Slovenians are probably just looking to win a game. Chelsea should have this group wrapped up before the last game. They already look like a team in mid-season form, and it's only mid-September. I think the battle for second will be very interesting. Schalke will be favored, but Sporting also have some talented players. In the end, I think the Germans will prevail. I'm going to make a prediction here too: Chelsea will win all six games.

Prediction: Chelsea, Schalke, Sporting Lisbon, Maribor

Group H

The final group is a lot like Group C in that all 4 teams believe they have a chance. Porto always seem to do well in the competition despite being raided year after year by bigger clubs.  Shakhtar Donetsk fall into a similar category. The Ukranian club has a strong nucleus of players from Brazil and a few solid players from Ukraine, however, they're currently dealing with political unrest. Athletic Bilbao are also making their Champions League debut after impressively knocking out Italian side Napoli in the playoff round. This young Spanish team will score plenty of goals. BATE Borisov are no pushover either. The Belorussians have made the competition 4 out of the last 5 years, failing to make it past the group stage. They will surely see this as an opportunity to take the next step. This group is also a toss up, and I think the political situation in Ukraine will play a role. 

Prediction: Athletic Bilbao, Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk, BATE Borisov

As always, please let me know what you think and offer your own predictions if you wish!

Adam Bakiera

Follow me on Twitter for Champions League updates, analysis, and the occasional rant
@abakiera

TCU Riff Ram Recap – Game 1 – TCU vs. Samford

There were many questions being asked before the Horned Frogs kicked off against the Samford Bulldogs on Saturday evening. Which Quarterback would start, Trevone Boykin or Matt Joeckel?

What can we expect out of the new offense? How will the Offensive Line hold up in a fast-paced scheme? Well, the Frogs new Air-Raid offense led by Trevone Boykin came out blazing, mixing up the run and pass all evening en route to the 48-14 win in front of 40,000+ at Amon G. Carter Stadium. The final stats don’t even tell the whole story. Let’s look at the different phases of the game.

The Horned Frogs ran 96 plays on Offense, 44 rushes for 200 yards and 52 passes for 355 yards, but Boykin was sacked twice for negative 16 yards and 4 penalties against the Offensive Line for 45 yards that eliminated other chances in this game. Trevone Boykin wasn’t great, still struggling on crossing routes and missing on deep throws down the middle; twice over-throwing Kolby Listenbee and not seeing a wide open Deante Gray in the 3^rd Quarter, but was a completely different Quarterback than the one we saw in 6 starts last year. He was confident and was out there having fun; and most of all, he didn’t turn the ball over. Boykin finished 29-41 for 320 yards and 2 TD’s and ran for another 29 and a TD. Matt Joeckel didn’t even make his TCU debut until the 4^th Quarter and threw a 2 yard fade route to Kolby Listenbee for a TD on his first attempt as a Frog. The Offensive Line was shaky at times but they ran 96 total plays on offense and only had 4 penalties on a humid night so it’s hard to complain when they churned out 555 total yards. 

You can’t talk about TCU and not mention the Defense. The Frogs held Samford to 143 Total Yards and only 9 First Downs in the game. 46 of the rushing yards were on scrambles by Samford Starting QB Michael Eubank. Both starting Linebackers, Marcus Mallet 10 tackles (1 for loss) and Paul Dawson (9 tackles, 1 Pass Breakup, 1 INT) were stellar in this one. All five Defensive Backs were around the ball and had great coverage which forced Michael Eubank to have to scramble more than he would have liked and Redshirt Freshman Cornerback Ranthany Texada nearly had an interception in the 2^nd Quarter. While the Linebackers and the DB's were great, the Star of the evening on defense was Mike Tuaua. The Junior Defensive End finished with 7 tackles (3.5 for loss), 2 Sacks, and 2 Forced Fumbles. 

The Special Teams were great as Jaden Oberkrom was perfect on the night (6-6 XP, 2-2 FG) and boomed the kickoffs through the end zone both with and against the wind. Ethan Perry averaged 48.2 yds/punt with two inside the 20 and the lone touchback was shown on replay to have been a bad call by the official. He was kicking deep and high, which is a dangerous combo when you’re the man waiting for it to come down and have players the speed of TCU barreling down on you.

The biggest takeaway from this game was the amount of big plays by the new offense. 6 players had runs of 10 or more yards for TCU (Boykin, Gray, Catalon, Hicks, Green, Johnson).  Kolby Listenbee and Deante Gray showed off their speed on deep balls, while Ty Slanina and David Porter were great in the slot. Also, 13 different players caught a pass for the Frogs including Kyle Hicks, Trevorris Johnson, Emmanuel Porter and Desmon White who caught their first career passes.

Defensive End Josh Carraway, Right Guard Brady Foltz, Wide Receiver Kolby Listenbee and Cornerback Ranthony Texada made their first career starts, while seven true Freshman played for the Frogs: Defensive Tackle Chris Bradley, Safety Travin Howard, Cornerback Nick Orr, Wide Receivers Emmanuel Porter and Desmon White, Center Austin Schlottman, Linebacker Ty Summers. The Horned Frogs played 68 total players including first career game action for Wide Receivers Daniel Walsh, Charlie Reid and Phil Taylor, Quarterback Zach Allen, Defensive Backs Steve Wesley and Cyd Calvin, Linebacker Paul Whitmill, Running Backs Kyle Hicks and Trevorris Johnson, Tight End Bryson Burnett, and Offensive Linemen Matt Pryor and Joseph Noteboom.

Up next for the Horned Frogs is Minnesota on September 13^th at 3 pm at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Remember to White Out The Carter and #AmpItUp.

See you there and #GoFrogs!

Geoff Craig

@geoffrey_craig