Wow...what.a.series. If you had the misfortune of missing out on the Kings-Blackhawks Western Conference Final, you just missed one of the best series hockey has seen in the last 15 or so years. I've watched hockey religiously since I was about 8, and this series goes in my top 5 of all time. Maybe one day I'll make a list of the best series I had the pleasure of watching (hint: it will happen later this summer). To be fair, it's not like the Eastern Conference Finals was a complete dud, but it can't touch what happened out west. Before I preview this year's finals, I'll review my predictions.
Montreal Canadiens vs. New York Rangers
Prediction: Canadiens in 6
Result: Rangers in 6
"Goaltending is one of the most important keys to a deep playoff run" This series is a great case of this being 100% true. Carey Price's injury in game 1 was huge. Enter Dustin Tokarski (who?). If anything, Tokarski's performance in this series secures him the Montreal back-up job for next season. At best, maybe a team like the Oilers or Flames who need a goalie come with an offer to make Tokarski their number 1. It's incredible to see a rookie goaltender step in for his first career start in a conference final. However, as well Tokarski played, he is at fault for the game 2 loss. A loss that changed the entire series. In a fair and just world this series would have gone to 7 games, but the NHL playoffs are anything but fair. After game 2, Tokarski was the main reason why the series even went this long. On the other side, Henrik Lundqvist was just as good as Tokarski (with the minor exception of game 5). His acrobatic save in game 6 on Tomas Vanek was the punctuation to the series. It's also fitting that the game winner was scored by Dominic Moore, who took a break from hockey after his wife died of a rare disease. The Canadiens looked tired in parts of this series, suggesting their emotional win over Boston in the previous series took its toll. The Rangers won this series with stifling defense and a superb penalty kill, killing 21 of 23 penalties. Carl Hagelin was a big part of both, and he will have to continue playing like he is if the Rangers want any shot at the cup.
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: Kings in 7 (in Overtime)
Result: Kings in 7 (in Overtime)
So...I get bonus points for being exactly right with every part of my prediction. You could probably write a book about this series, it was that good. I am convinced these are currently the two best teams in the league, and it showed. Let's go back to game 2 when the Kings scored 6 unanswered goals to steal home ice. They then won both games in LA, and were inches away from winning game 5 when Anze Kopitar's shot in overtime hit the post. The Blackhawks showed championship resolve, winning game 5 in double overtime, and taking game 6 in LA, after a masterpiece performance by Patrick Kane. Kane was non-existent at the beginning of the series, but he was almost unstoppable by the end. The Kings also proved that while they're a defense-first team, they are capable of playing in track meets. For a team that struggled to score goals in the regular season (and parts of the playoffs), the Kings scored less than 3 goals only once and at one point in the series were 5 for their last 8 on the power play. To be honest, I didn't think the Kings could go into Chicago and win a game 7 after blowing a 3-1 series lead. We shouldn't be surprised though, the Kings are now 7-0 in elimination games this year. What does that really mean? This team is scary good when their season is on the line. Also, shout out to Justin Williams (aka Mr. Game 7)...Williams became the all-time leading point scorer in game 7's with a goal and an assist in this one. He has 14 career game 7 points, better than any player in the history of the NHL. Pretty impressive. Oh, and he's also NEVER lost a game 7 in his career (7-0). This is one of those times where it's a shame one of these teams has to go home. A quick note: this is the fourth time in five years that Chicago or Los Angeles is representing the West in the Stanley Cup Final. The loss by Chicago means no team has won back to back championships since the Detroit Red Wings in '97-'98.
Predictions
Eastern Conference: 0-1
Western Conference: 1-0 (1 exact number of games. 1 correct prediction of series ending in OT)
Playoff Total
Eastern Conference: 3-4 (1 exact number of games)
Western Conference: 6-1 (2 exact number of games, 1 correct prediction of series ending in OT)
Total: 9-5 (3 exact number of games, 1 correct prediction of series ending in OT)
The 2014 Stanley Cup Final: Los Angeles Kings vs. New York Rangers
Game 1 Wednesday, June 4th 8:00 ET
This is it. The end of the road for both of these teams. This is the dream match-up for the NHL. Two teams, in two of the biggest markets. If the NHL wants to gain popularity, it has a perfect opportunity with these two teams playing in the final. These teams have had very different paths to the finals. The Kings got here by beating the number 1, 2, and 6 ranked scoring teams, all in 7 games. They're the first team in NHL history to play the maximum 21 games and make it to the final. The Rangers have played 20 games, so it's not like they breezed into the finals, but their opponents were weaker. New York also gets three extra days of rest. As many experts point out, the Rangers have yet to face a team that is as physical or deep as the Kings. But make no mistake, no team ever makes it this far and doesn't deserve it. The problem here is that the Rangers simply don't match up well with the Kings, and are simply not as good on paper. But as we all know, games aren't played on paper. For those that watched hockey a long time ago, this series reminds me of the 2003 Finals between the Devils and Ducks. New Jersey was the clear favorite that year, but they were pushed to 7 games, mostly because of Anaheim goalie J.S. Giguere. This year, Lundqvist will need to play similarly if the Rangers want a shot at the cup.
Key Match-ups
Henrik Lundqvist vs. the entire Kings roster
So far in these playoffs, it's been goalie vs. goalie as the key match-up, but this is a lot more than that. Not only will Lundqvist have to outplay Jonathan Quick, he'll have to do it by a considerable margin (unless the Rangers somehow become a goal-scoring machine). The truth is, Lundqvist doesn't have the defense in front of him that Quick does, no offense to Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi. Remember what King Henrik had to do in game 7 of the second round against Pittsburgh? There will be times in this series where the Kings will launch wave after wave of attacks and it will be up to Lundqvist to keep his team in the game. I would give Lundqvist a small edge over Jonathan Quick, but it may be the only match-up in this series that favors the Rangers.
Kings forwards vs. Rangers forwards
If the Rangers are to win the cup, they'll need their forwards to help out a lot on defense, much like the Pittsburgh series. If you look at just the centers, LA has the edge. Kopitar, Carter, Stoll, and Richards...they pack quite the punch up the middle. While Kopitar and Carter may steal the attention, Stoll and Richards are very good role players, especially in the face-off circle. The wingers are pretty good too...Marion Gaborik leads the NHL in playoff goals, and has been scoring in the clutch. He faces one of his former teams in this series, and had some productive years as a Ranger, notching over 40 goals in one of them. Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson complete the "That 70's line" with Jeff Carter, and were the most important line in games 2-5 in the Chicago series. Rick Nash and Martin St. Louis will have to elevate their game for the Rangers to win. A specific match-up to watch will be these teams' third lines. The Rangers' third line carried them past Pittsburgh while LA's third line has Justin Williams, a clutch playoff performer, and Jarret Stoll, who as mentioned before, is one of the best face-off takers in the league.
Darryl Sutter vs. Alain Vigneault
Coaching adjustments were absolutely crucial for both teams in their last series, but especially for the Kings. Even though the "that 70's line" tore up Chicago at the beginning of the series, they were ineffective for games 5 and 6. So Sutter broke them up and the result was a game 7 victory. Sutter's adjustment was in response to Joel Quenneville (Chicago coach), shuffling his lines. Vigneault knows exactly what he's up against though. While still in Vancouver, Vigneault's Canucks were ousted in 5 games by the Kings in the first round of the 2012 playoffs. The task at hand is a tall one, but keep in mind this is only Vigneault's first season as head coach of the Rangers, meaning his guys know the system and can adapt quickly to adjustments.
Special Teams
Both teams stepped up in this department to win their last series. On one hand, the Rangers were able to virtually shut down a very respectable Montreal power play, killing 21 of 23 penalties (91%) including 8 of 9 in game 3. On the other hand, the Kings power play went 6 for 19 (32%), and while the PK did allow 6 power play goals, the Blackhawks are a top 3 NHL offense. The Rangers were up and down on the Power Play in their series. They started 4 for 10 but only scored twice in their final 16 chances. Not only does the Rangers penalty kill have to maintain its high level of play, the power play has to be more consistent.
Verdict: The Kings will be pretty heavily favored to win this series, and for good reason. Really, the only match-up where the Rangers have the edge is goaltending, and even that edge is very small. The Rangers do have the benefit of three extra resting days, but fatigue doesn't seem to be hurting the Kings too much (especially given the gauntlet they had to get through). The Rangers also have two players with significant emotional strength right now. Martin St. Louis has been a different player since his mother passed away on Mother's Day. Dominic Moore also looks inspired, scoring the only goal in game 6 after a year away from hockey. Moore's wife died in January of 2013 from a rare form of liver cancer. If you combine those factors AND if Henrik Lundqvist plays the series of his life, the Rangers have a chance. However, that's a lot of "ifs" and while it's not impossible for the Rangers to win this series, it will be very hard. The Kings are simply more talented, deeper, and more experienced. Kings in 6.
Adam Bakiera
Follow me on twitter @abakiera
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