Welcome back! I know it's been a while since I last posted, but I wanted to make sure the group stage of this year's World Cup was over. So far the competition has been MUCH better than the 2010 edition, a lot of that has to do with goals. In the group stage, 133 goals were scored, the most since 1970. Of those, 24 were scored by substitutes, which is already a World Cup record. Before I give you an analysis of the round of 16, I'll review some of the main headlines from the group stages.
The Stars Came to Play
If you look at the top goal scorers so far you see a three way tie for the Golden Boot. Lionel Messi, Neymar, and Thomas Mueller are the three players. Messi has finally shown up for his country this World Cup, and without him Argentina would not have won all three games. Brazil would probably not have won their group without Neymar's goals. Arjen Robben, Robin van Persie, and James Rodriguez have scored 3 goals, each are considered star players for their respective teams. Cristiano Ronaldo only scored once, but he had a gorgeous cross against the U.S. that kept Portugal alive. Before the unfortunate biting incident, Luis Suarez single handily led Uruguay past England. It's been amazing to watch the best players in the world thrive on the biggest stage.
The Rise of the Underdogs
Thirteen European teams entered the tournament, only 6 remain. Four CONCACAF teams entered, three of them got out of the group. Many people (including myself) had no African teams getting past the group stages, for the first time ever, there are two. Many of these teams have proven that good coaching, good tactics, team chemistry, and style of play can make up for a lack of star players. Costa Rica is the best example. The Ticos use a high pressure, counter attacking style that surprised both Italy and Uruguay. To me it also looks like Costa Rica have better conditioned players. The United States were also not expected to get out of the group of death. They were lucky to beat Ghana, but played very well against Portugal. Algeria may be the biggest surprise to advance. Sure, they had a weak group, but they also pushed Belgium to the limit. They became the first African team to score 4 goals in a World Cup against South Korea, and fought back valiantly to tie Russia.
Traditional Powerhouses Underperforming
Spain, Italy, England, Portugal, Ghana. These countries have all made it to a quarterfinal in recent World Cups, and all of these countries exit this year's tournament at the group stage. The collapse of Spain is most noteworthy, as many had La Furia Roja going very far in the tournament. Some think that Tiki-Taka is not dead, but just needs new players. I think teams have figured out how to play against that type of soccer. Still, the Golden Age of Spain included two European Championships and World Cup, three major tournaments in a row. I'm not surprised England is going home, but I am surprised at how poor they played. Ghana actually didn't play that bad, but they had lapses in concentration that ended up being their downfall. Even some of the better teams that did make it out aren't convincing. I picked Brazil to win the whole tournament, but as of now I can't see that happening unless they step it up. Fortunate to beat Croatia, tied Mexico, and not convincing against Cameroon. Uruguay is also lucky to be in the round of 16, and without Suarez they probably won't get much further. Even Belgium doesn't look like a team that can't be beaten. This is as wide open a World Cup as I can remember.
Round of 16
Brazil vs. Chile
Five South American teams make the round of 16, and four of them play each other. I can't wait for this game, because I think we may see an upset. Chile will give Brazil everything they can handle, maybe more because of how mediocre Brazil has looked so far. Chile on the other hand looks solid, but they'll need to find a player that can track Neymar (maybe Arturo Vidal). Brazil will have more and more pressure each time they advance. They have the talent, but Neymar can't do it by himself. This will be a typical CONMEBOL game: close, fast paced, scrappy.
Prediction: Brazil 3 Chile 2 (after extra time).
Colombia vs. Uruguay
Colombia eased past all three opponents in their group. They have a ton of speed, most notably through Juan Cuadrado. James Rodriguez is pulling the strings, and Jackson Martinez seems to have broken out of his goal drought. Simply put, Colombia are firing on all cylinders. Uruguay seem weary. They got out of a tough group on fortunate circumstances, and have not looked all that good. They also won't have Luis Suarez. Colombia will probably have a large share of possession with Uruguay attempting to counter. Without Suarez, Uruguay will have trouble scoring goals.
Prediction: Colombia 3 Uruguay 1
Netherlands vs. Mexico
Mexico has looked very good so far. A lot of the credit has to go to coach Miguel Herrera. I think this guy is awesome, he is so passionate about every single call. A somewhat controversial decision to put Javier Hernandez on the bench is working out as Oribe Peralta is the better choice. Mexico has also only allowed 1 goal so far, a consolation goal for Croatia in the third game. The Netherlands have also impressed, starting with a blowout of Spain. The young defense is embracing the world stage and the stars are performing. Mexico can't back away in this game, they have to keep attacking. This is another game I'm very excited to watch and this time I'm going with the underdogs.
Prediction: Mexico 2 Netherlands 2 (Mexico wins on penalties)
Costa Rica vs. Greece
Raise your hand if you had Costa Rica or Greece in the quarterfinals. One of these teams will be in the final 8, a huge achievement. Costa Rica brilliantly navigated through the second toughest group, and came out group winners. Greece, as usual, parked the bus and got lucky. They only scored two goals (all in the last game) and had a negative goal difference. Costa Rica will be the favorite, but Greece isn't a good match-up because they play almost an identical style to Costa Rica. The Ticos may not be able to use their high pressure/counter attack because they'll have the ball more. I won't be surprised at all if Greece defends and gets a fortuitous bounce or call.
Prediction: Costa Rica 0 Greece 1
France vs. Nigeria
No one is really talking about France, but they are quietly putting together a great tournament. They topped a pretty weak group, but did so in style, putting 5 goals past a respectable Switzerland team. Karim Benzema has been key. Nigeria may be a little fortunate to be here after a clear refereeing error against Bosnia took away a good goal. They were uninspiring against Iran, but played fairly well against Argentina. I'm still waiting for Emmanuel Emenike to make his mark. The Nigerian striker has come close to scoring in every game. I think the way France is playing will just be too much for this Nigerian side.
Prediction: France 2 Nigeria 0
Germany vs. Algeria
Algeria's very valiant effort to get out of their group rewards them with a game against Germany. It's a very tall task for the African side. Sure, they stumped Belgium for a very long time, but Germany has more quality and experience. Germany looked good in making it out of the group of death. They easily dispatched Portugal, played the most entertaining game so far against Ghana, and comfortably beat the United States. They still lack a true number 9, but Thomas Mueller is playing the false 9 with great success. I don't see this ending well for the Algerians.
Prediction: Germany 3 Algeria 0
Argentina vs. Switzerland
Led by Lionel Messi, Argentina got out of a fairly easy group, winning all of their games. All three of the games were close though, and Switzerland is better than any of the three teams Argentina has faced so far. Switzerland turned defeat into victory in their first group game, scoring on a brilliant counter-attack against Ecuador on the last kick of the game. They were beaten by France, but the 5-2 scoreline is a little deceiving because the Swiss actually had chances. Xherdan Shaqiri's hat trick against Honduras ensured Switzerland's progress. I expect the young Swiss team to push Argentina, but I don't think they have anyone that can shut down Lionel Messi for a full game.
Prediction: Argentina 2 Switzerland 1
Belgium vs. United States
The last round of 16 match-up, and a decent draw for the United States. Belgium looks solid defensively so far, but they've lacked some quality up front. Romelu Lukaku has really struggled, and I wouldn't be surprised if Divock Origi starts. The depth of Belgium could see them go far in this tournament. Everyone seems to be waiting for this Belgium team to have an awesome performance. The U.S. were somewhat fortunate to beat Ghana, but fully deserved a tie (probably more) against Portugal. They never really looked threatening against Germany, but they also knew they didn't have to win the game. I'm worried that lack of goal scoring will be the downfall of this team. Clint Dempsey played well as the lone striker against Portugal, but was ineffective against Germany. Jozy Altidore's status for the game is uncertain at this point.
Prediction: Belgium 1 United States 0
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