The NHL sure doesn't like to waste any time. The LA Kings destroyed the Ducks in game 7 last night, and less than 24 hours after Round 2 ended, the Conference Finals begin. Before I give you my thoughts on the third round, let's see how I did in Round 2.
Boston Bruins vs. Montreal Canadiens
My Prediction: Bruins in 7
Result: Canadiens in 7
"The Canadiens will give the Bruins a stern test" were some of the last words I wrote in my predictions. Montreal gave Boston everything it could handle plus more. It really isn't as big a surprise as many people think. Sure, Boston is one of the best teams in the league, but like I said before, Montreal matches up well, and the familiarity factor played a huge role. P.K. Subban gets the last laugh as Boston fans taunted him (even racially abused him at one point), but Subban let his play do the talking, scoring the game winner in double overtime of game 1. Montreal won by essentially copying Boston and playing very hard-nosed defensive hockey. The Canadiens allowed just one goal in the final two games. Boston can look at the lack of production from Patrice Bergeron as a direct factor in why they lost. Most of the Bruins forwards were poor in this series, but especially Bergeron, who led the team in goals during the regular season. Aside from game 6, Boston's defense was actually pretty good, but they didn't have enough depth scoring, something they will likely address in the off-season.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Rangers
My Prediction: Rangers in 7
Result: Rangers in 7
My second exactly correct prediction of this year's playoffs, and what a series it was. You thought the Rangers were dead in the water after game 5 didn't you? I'll admit that I did. It was more of an epic collapse from the Penguins, who have now lost to a lower seeded team in 5 straight playoffs. The Rangers completely shutdown Pittsburgh's offense in the last three games, allowing just one goal in each. The majority of the credit goes to Henrik Lundqvist, who may just win the Conn Smythe if he can carry the Rangers to the finals. His performance in game 7 was one of the best by a goalie in recent playoffs, as he stopped wave after wave of attacks in the third period. Again, the formula for winning in the Stanley Cup is defense and depth scoring, the Penguins had little defense and zero depth scoring after game 4. The loss resulted in the firing of GM Ray Shero and more people may be let go once the new GM settles in (I'm looking at you Dan Bylsma). The Rangers have the kind of depth scoring that can win Stanley Cups. The leading scorer in the series? Derick Brassard, a third liner.
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Minnesota Wild
My Prediction: Blackhawks in 5
Result: Blackhawks in 6
Either the Minnesota Wild were better than most people (including me) give them credit for, or the Blackhawks still haven't found their best form. Honestly, I think it's a combination of the two. Really, Chicago didn't dominate this series at all, but they could've won it in less games. The good news is that Corey Crawford is in VERY good form right now and that Patrick Kane has established himself as the most clutch player in the league. Want some more good news? Bryan Bickell, the guy the Hawks gave a 4 year/$16 million extension, was the leading scorer in the series. There's the depth scoring I mentioned earlier. The Blackhawks also got better on the road as the series progressed, eventually winning game 6. Minnesota is an extremely tough place to play. The Wild can leave the playoffs with heads held high. They got past the first round and if not for an unlucky bounce in game 6, may have really put some pressure on the Blackhawks in a game 7. Ultimately, Chicago is simply the better team in almost every facet of the game. The good news is the team is young and this experience will certainly help them develop. The bad news? The Central Division is going to be an absolute bloodbath for the next 5-8 years.
Anaheim Ducks vs. Los Angeles Kings
My Prediction: Kings in 5
Result: Kings in 7
This was one of the strangest series I've ever watched. The road team won the first four games and after LA was up 2-0 you thought a sweep may be on the cards. On one hand it's no surprise the Kings eventually pulled it off, but you have to wonder what Anaheim coach Bruce Boudreau was thinking. He started rookie goaltender John Gibson in game 4, despite the goalie not having ANY playoff experience. The result was the youngest goaltender to ever record a playoff shutout, and it was on his debut! Everything looked good in Anaheim after they won game 5, but then it all fell apart. Game 6 was very close, but the Kings won on a soft goal let in by Gibson and the Ducks were absolutely destroyed in game 7. I still think Boudreau should've gone with Jonas Hiller in net, starting a rookie goaltender midway through a series is a tough task. Hopefully Gibson's confidence won't be completely destroyed because he is the net-minder of the future. The Kings went 3-1 on the road in the series and lead the NHL playoffs with 5 road wins. They're also 6-0 in elimination games. What that basically means is they refuse to give in when their backs are against the wall. Also, the Marian Gaborik trade is looking better and better as the Slovakian winger continues to score goals. The game 7 performance is the sort of domination that Blackhawks fans should be afraid of.
Predictions
Eastern Conference: 1-1 (1 exact number of games)
Western Conference: 2-0
Playoff total
Eastern Conference: 3-3 (1 exact number of games)
Western Conference: 5-1 (1 exact number of games)
Total: 8-4 (2 exact number of games)
Conference Finals Picks
This year's conference finals features two completely different match-ups. In the East you have two unlikely teams who will both fancy their chances of advancing, having beaten better teams in the previous round. In the West, you have two established power houses. One is looking for a 3rd cup in 5 years, the other a 2nd cup in 4 years. In some years, conference finals are more exciting than the Stanley Cup Final (See just about any year from 1995-2002). Without further ado, let's dive into this year's final four.
Eastern Conference Final: Montreal Canadiens vs. New York Rangers
These teams have met 14 times in the playoffs and history suggests this series will be close. Why? the teams have split the 14 series. New York won the last meeting, but that was all the way back in the first round of the 1996 playoffs. These are two of the Original Six NHL teams, and Montreal has eliminated New York 6 times on the way to winning a Stanley Cup. Enough history though, this match-up is a good one. Montreal arrives having beaten arguably the best all-around team in the league. New York completed an epic comeback after being down 3-1 to the Penguins. Montreal is the surprise team of the playoffs for me. They cruised through the first round and battled through the second. The Rangers seem to be peaking at the right time.
Key Match-ups
Henrik Lundqvist vs. Carey Price
The two goalies who played in the Gold Medal game in Sochi face off. Lundqvist stole the show in game 7 of the last series, and in my opinion is the best goalie in the league right now. Carey Price isn't too far behind. Though he didn't steal the series, he made timely saves against the Bruins and only allowed one goal in the last two games. With the way these guys are playing I'd be shocked if we see any team score more than three goals in a game. Expect a low scoring goal-tender duel. Lundqvist may have the slight edge due to experience.
New York Rangers vs. fatigue (physical and emotional)
After being down 3-1, the Rangers had played 5 games in 7 nights. That kind of scenario rarely happens even in the regular season. The Rangers have played the maximum 14 games in the first two rounds, with very little rest. They're not a young team, so when does it all start to catch-up? The passing of Martin St. Louis' mother on Mother's Day added to the emotional toll, though it may have actually boosted the Rangers. Luckily, the Rangers are getting goals from their third and even fourth lines, but those guys can't be your offensive leaders. Now, with only one full day off, the Rangers start in Montreal, arguably the toughest place to play in the entire league.
Special Teams
In a series like this, every goal has added value and every penalty is more costly. Neither team is too impressive on the penalty kill (MTL 80% NYR 82%, anything around 85% and above is pretty good) but the difference lies on the power play. The Rangers have had the man advantage more than any team in the playoffs, 55 times, but have only scored 6 goals (12%). The Candiens are 10 for 38 (26%) which is more than twice as efficient. Montreal also has P.K. Subban, one of the best offensive defenseman, quarterbacking their power play.
Verdict: These are two teams that play very similar styles. They both have elite goaltenders that could steal a game and even an entire series. Look for this series to be low scoring, defensive, and physical. If you're like me and are a fan of pre 2004 lockout hockey, this is the ideal series. There isn't much separating the teams so expect a long series. Montreal having home-ice may be the difference here, as the Canadiens have lost just once at the Bell Centre. Canadiens in 6
Western Conference Final: Chicago Blackhawks vs. Los Angeles Kings
I can't wait to watch this series. These may be the two best teams, not only in the Western Conference, but in the entire league right now. Both teams are young but very experienced with 3 Stanley Cups between them in the last 5 years. As close as the Eastern Conference match-up is, this one is a virtual stalemate. Chicago easily dispatched the Kings last year, but Jonathan Quick was hurting and the Hawks were basically unstoppable. Forwards, defensmen, goalies, these teams are complete packages.
Key Match-ups
Kings defense vs. Blackhawks offense
I put the Kings defense first because they're the ones that need to step up in this match-up. Drew Doughty is a household name, and some people may even know who Jake Muzzin and Slava Voynov are. Everyone knows who Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Marian Hossa are though. I said earlier Kane is the most clutch player in the league, I would put Toews in the top 5 as well. The Kings will be without veteran defensemen Robyn Regehr and Willie Mitchell for the start of this series, and it's unknown when either will return. Those two guys could have really helped slow down the Chicago offense. Matt Greene and Jeff Schultz will take their place, and the two played well against the Ducks, but this is a different challenge.
Joel Quenneville vs. Daryl Sutter
Two veteran coaches who have multiple championships face off. One thing many people overlook in the playoffs is adjustments. Coaches who make the best adjustments (or none at all) are the ones who succeed. Look at all four coaches still left...all of them have been this far before. Quenneville was known for a more conservative defensive style of hockey before he came to Chicago. He adjusted to the Blackhawks roster which is loaded with offensive talent. Sutter is very similar, he stresses defense, and the Kings roster is built to his style. The Kings 6-0 record in elimination games, I think, is a tribute to Sutter making the right adjustments. In a series where little separates the teams, the smallest change or decision could make all of the difference.
Los Angeles Kings and consistency
In some ways the Kings are fortunate to still be in the playoffs. They've already played six elimination games. They fell behind 3-0 to the Sharks and lost three in a row to Anaheim after leading the series 2-0. So you have a three game losing streak, followed by a six game winning streak, another three game losing streak, and now a two game winning streak. That may get you through the first two rounds, but it won't get you past a team like Chicago. Bottom line is the Kings NEED to find a way to replicate the wins. In most of the games they lost, lack of goal scoring was the culprit. I think they'll need at least 3 goals in every game to win the series.
Verdict: This series really is about as evenly matched as it gets. I wouldn't look at last year's Conference Finals as any sort of indicator for this year. I still don't think the Blackhawks are playing their best, which is scary. The Kings may be close to peaking after the dominating performance against Anaheim in game 7. Both goalies are also playing near their best, especially Corey Crawford. I will almost guarantee this series goes the distance (barring any freak injuries of course). When a series is this close you have to go with your gut (and in my case, my playoff bracket). Kings in 7 (in overtime)
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