Sunday, May 18, 2014

Green Machine Musings- Grading the Defensemen

 
 
             The offseason is in full swing for 26 of the NHL's 30 teams, and before each one of them can move forward, they have to look back to see what went either right or wrong this year.  Thus, it's time to continue our analysis of each player who took the ice for the Dallas Stars in 2013-14.  We had a heap of fun analyzing the forward corps earlier this week, now it's time to take a look at the blue-liners.  The Stars had little consistency on defense for much of the year, a trend that really hurt this club during certain stretches.  However, near the end of the campaign, Lindy Ruff and his partner-in-crime James Patrick were able to establish some very solid defensive pairings despite having only left-handed shooters and not much 'grit' to speak of.  The team's primary needs on the blue line will be discussed in detail in a later post, but for now, let's get right to the unit's report card for 2013-14.

#33 Alex Goligoski     A      THIS was the Alex Goligoski that the Stars had hoped they'd be getting when they acquired him from the Pittsburgh Penguins for James Neal and Matt Niskanen in 2011.  While the trade is still an ominous moment in recent Stars history, Goligoski silenced many of his critics and might just be breaking free from the stigma that the trade unfairly placed on him.  Goose was third on the team in scoring with 42 points (6 goals and 36 assists) and led the defense in scoring by a country mile (finishing 17 points ahead of his defense partner Trevor Daley).  What might have been most impressive about him, though, was his ability to play a huge number of minutes against the opponent's best offensive lines.  During the playoff series against Anaheim, Goligoski received an average of 28:30 of ice time per game, the highest average total on the team.  Prior to this season, there was talk of Goligoski perhaps being dangled as trade bait due to his favorable contract situation  (two more years at $4.6 million/year).  Now, there is absolutely no chance that Jim Nill parts with Goose unless he has seen some indication that prospect John Klingberg will be ready to join the Dallas club right out of training camp.  Not only do I not see that happening, I see the Stars offering Alex Goligoski a sizable contract extension.  Why?  Because if the Stars bring in some defensive-minded players to play alongside him, Goose's offensive numbers are only going to improve.
 
 
#37 Patrik Nemeth        A-     Over the past two years, the young Swede has been highly praised by fans watching him play with the Texas Stars because of his ability to shut down any and all opposing forwards.  Simply put, when he was on the ice, teams could not score.  He was expected to challenge for an NHL spot in the near future, but none of us were sure when his time would come due to his checkered medical history, which included a knee injury in 2012-13 and a foot injury in 2013-14, both of which kept him out of Texas' lineup for long stretches of time.  His time came sooner than any of us could have anticipated when he was recalled on March 31st, a move designed to add some much needed physicality to the back end.  The experiment worked beautifully as Nemeth looked right at home in his own zone at the NHL level, consistently throwing his weight around and shoving opposing players out of his goaltender's line of vision.  Despite playing in just eight regular season games, Nemeth entered the NHL playoffs as one of the Stars most important blue liners, and his injury during the series hurt the Green Machine considerably.  He did appear a bit raw at times in the offensive zone, but this can and will be ironed out as he gains experience at this level. Moving forward, his rock solid defensive play will help the offense by freeing up his partner to join the attack.  He is currently back with the Texas Stars and gaining valuable playoff experience as they face Grand Rapids in the AHL's Western Conference Finals.  On the season, Nemeth was a terrific plus-19 in 37 regular season games for Texas and was plus-3 in five playoff games entering Friday.
 
 
#24 Jordie Benn          B+      Jamie's older brother received a surprising three-year contract this past offseason after struggling mightily at times in 2013, prompting many to wonder what Jim Nill and his crew saw in the elder Benn moving forward.  We found out in a big way this season.  Jordie Benn was an absolutely crucial component of the Stars' blue line this year, emerging as a top-four defenseman and forming a shutdown pairing with Brenden Dillon during the latter stages of the campaign.  As a player who went undrafted and worked his way up from the ECHL and CHL, to the AHL, and eventually the NHL, Jordie is yet another diamond in the rough that the Stars somehow got their hands on.  He put up a solid 20 points (3 goals + 17 assists) in 78 games during the regular season, but what really is most telling about his improvement is his plus-16 rating, an indication of his much-improved play in his own zone.  An interesting side note was that he has developed a pretty slick backhand move for use in one-on-one situations.  Check out the video above for a look at the ankle-breaker of a move he pulled on a penalty shot against Minnesota on January 21st.
 
 
#6 Trevor Daley             B+      Alex Goligoski's mate on the top defensive pairing had himself a very productive year, potting a career-high nine goals and finishing the year with a career-high plus-10 rating over 67 games.  The longest-tenured Star on the roster, Daley was the only member of the organization who was around when the team last made the playoffs in 2008, and he did not disappoint when given another crack at the postseason after five seasons of coming up short.  In Game 6 of the series against Anaheim, Daley scored twice on breakaways with a series of slick moves, an indication that he still has something to offer offensively at age 30.  With three years left on his current contract and a very reasonable cap hit ($3.3 Million/year), he could be attractive to other teams looking for a two-way defenseman.  Whether or not the Stars will entertain offers for him probably depends on the development of players like John Klingberg, Jamie Oleksiak, and Kevin Connauton.
 
 
 
 
#4 Brenden Dillon         B+       This year, Brenden Dillon gave the Stars' blue line what it so desperately needed: consistency.  Whenever he was in the lineup, fans could expect his pairing to be a steadying presence for the rest of the team as they made the transition from offense to defense and vice versa.   In 80 regular season games, he put up 17 points (6 goals + 11 assists) and finished the year with a plus-9 rating, which was tied for third amongst Stars' defensemen.  The pairing of Dillon and Jordie Benn proved very effective during the latter part of the season, however, most of the toughest minutes were given to the duo of Goligoski and Daley.  This tells me that Dillon still has some growing to do if he is to become the shutdown defenseman that the Stars hope he can be.  Regardless, Dillon's late season injury was huge blow to the Stars as they entered the postseason.  His steadying presence was sorely missed throughout the first four games of the series against Anaheim, and when he returned; he was not the same player, as he was playing through a foot injury that required an operation.  Dillon is a Restricted Free Agent this offseason, so the Stars will look to lock him up with a large but reasonable contract that will allow them to evaluate his worth as he enters his prime.  According to my friends over at DefendingBigD.com, the current consensus estimate of such a deal is somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 years for $18.5 Million (~$4.6 M/year).

#23 Kevin Connauton     B-     Connauton's grade was really difficult to determine because his playing time this year was sporadic at best.  For the first twenty games of the year, Connauton played in all of one game, and it was not until injuries to Stephane Robidas and Trevor Daley opened a spot for him that he began to receive consistent playing time.  In total, he skated in 36 games and contributed 8 points (1 goal + 7 assists).  He also played in four of the Stars' six playoff games.  However, we still do not know exactly what he brings to the table for the Stars.  He has a very heavy shot, perhaps the hardest slap shot on the team, but he has yet to get consistent chances to use it.  Moreover, most of the time he spent on the ice involved him being paired with Sergei Gonchar, an offensive-minded defenseman who did not allow for Connauton to join the rush without conceding open ice behind him for a counterattack.  This meant that Connauton got burned defensively on more than a handful of occasions.  It might have been all for the best had he been sent down to Cedar Park for an extended period of time instead of spending game after game in the press box, but this simply wasn't an option due to the new contract he signed in the offseason.  It mandated that he would have to clear waivers in order to be sent down, something that Nill, Ruff, and company certainly were not willing to risk.  All that said, it remains a mystery as to what sort of plan the coaching staff and upper-level management have for Kevin Connauton.  I highly doubt that they will leave him to flounder in Dallas as the seventh or eighth defenseman.  Expect some sort of move to occur that will either clear a spot for him among the six dressing defensemen or send him someplace where he can be of better use.
 
 
#36 Cameron Gaunce       B-       Gaunce is a defense-first blue-liner who has really helped stabilize the back end for both the Texas and Dallas Stars.  After being acquired last season for almost nothing (Tomas Vincour), Gaunce was signed to a one-year deal and will be a Restricted Free Agent after this season.  During his time with the Texas Stars, the 24 year-old Gaunce played in 65 games, putting up 18 points (3 goals + 15 assists) and playing his way to a very impressive plus-15 rating, an indication of his exceptional reliability in his own zone.  He was called up to the Dallas Stars for nine games in December and January when the blue line was in shambles and was an effective part of a secondary shutdown pairing.  He accumulated no points but finished with a plus-1 rating, a very solid mark.  Expect him to receive a new contract this offseason so that the organization has a true shutdown defender to slot in at either level.  I do not expect him to make the jump to the NHL full-time this season, but he should be hitting his prime soon and could play an important role for this organization moving forward.
 
#5 Jamie Oleksiak          C       The 21 year-old prospect took a significant step back in his development this season, prompting some to guess that he will not quite be ready for the NHL in 2014-15.  The Stars knew that his development curve would be long when they selected him 14th overall in the 2011 Entry Draft, for the 6'7, 254 lb. defenseman known as the "Big Rig" is still learning how to use his massive frame in his defensive zone.  In seven games for the Dallas Stars during the month of December, he did not put up any points and was a minus-3 before being promptly sent back to Cedar Park.  With the Texas Stars, his level of play has been a step below that of his fabulous rookie season in 2012-13, in which he received an invite to the AHL All-Star Game.  In 69 games this regular season, he put up a respectable 23 points, but he was often viewed as tentative to throw his weight around in his own zone, a major red flag for his development.  That said, his level of composure improved some when he was paired with veteran AHLer Derek Meech.  The 36-year old Meech was signed by Texas in early January in an effort to provide stability on the back end by giving the young Oleksiak someone experienced to lean on.  Since this experiment has seen some good results, don't expect Jim Nill and his staff in Dallas to give up on the Big Rig just yet.  We don't want to risk missing out on the next Zdeno Chara.
 
 
  
#55 Sergei Gonchar           C-        Where to begin with Sergei Gonchar?  Couldn't we just pay him a few million to be Val Nichushkin's dad for another year?  Look, we all understood that the now 40-year old Russian was past his prime when he arrived in Dallas this past summer, but that does not excuse his level of play throughout this campaign.  Gonchar was expected to be a driving force behind a Stars defense that was swift to join the attack on an odd-man rush as well as a "quarterback" for a rejuvenated power play.  Simply put, he was neither of those things.  His productivity on the offensive end was not nearly what we thought it would be, and his play in his own zone was downright awful.  His horrific ratings of minus-12 in the regular season and minus-3 in six playoff games tell you all that you need to know.  His $5 million contract has quickly become the biggest albatross contract on the team, as his value appears lower than that of Shawn Horcoff or Erik Cole, the two other most overpaid players on this club.  Now, I understand that his value to the maturation of Valeri Nichushkin cannot be discounted, as he had a similar effect on a young Evgeni Malkin back in Pittsburgh, but is it worth bringing him back for the final year of his contract?  That will be a serious question for Jim Nill to ponder this offseason.
 
 
#27 Aaron Rome             D        Aaron Rome appears the most likely player on the Dallas Stars to receive a compliance buyout if no one is willing to take him off our hands.  Signed to a three-year deal by former GM Joe Nieuwendyk, Rome has never been slotted above the bottom pairing on the Stars' blue line for a multitude of reasons.  First and foremost, Rome was made of glass this year.  That is, he was always injured, never staying in the lineup for an extended period of time.  And when he was in the lineup, he failed to chip in anything offensively or provide the physicality that the Stars' blue line so desperately needed.  In 25 games, he contributed all of 1 assist and an abysmal minus-6 rating.  His level of play was so low that the Stars chose to turn to rookie defenseman Patrik Nemeth in the middle of the chase for a playoff spot instead of putting Rome back in the lineup.  That is something few teams would do unless the NHL-level player in question was viewed as a liability.  To top it all off, when Dillon was forced to sit out Game 1 of the playoff series against Anaheim with his foot injury, Rome entered the lineup on the bottom pairing and was burned badly on multiple occasions.  He never saw the ice again in the series.  In short terms, HE NEEDS TO GO!  And if we need any more reasons to send him packing, his spot on the roster must be opened in order to break up the log jam of defensive prospects knocking on the door of the NHL roster.
 
 
#3 Stephane Robidas        I cannot realistically assign a grade to old Robi in this post, but I most certainly cannot omit him from it, either.  He was a Star for nearly a decade and had earned the respect of millions of fans with his incredible toughness and never-say-die persona on and off the ice.  Tragically, his legendary toughness was put to the test this season as his career was put in serious jeopardy.  On November 29th, Robidas badly broke both bones in his lower right leg in a freak accident in his own zone.  I was at that game, and I could sense that everyone in attendance was wondering if his career was done.  No one could deny that he would attempt to come back from it, but the grotesqueness of the injury made such an attempt look like a long shot.  Ultimately, he would persevere and return to the ice in 2014, albeit not in victory green.  GM Jim Nill wanted to give him a legitimate shot at winning Lord Stanley's Cup, so he dealt Robidas to the Anaheim Ducks for a (no longer conditional) fourth-round draft pick.  Stephane's horrible luck was not past, however.  In Game 3 of the playoff series against Dallas, on the same sheet of ice that his injury in November had occurred on, he broke the same leg again in a collision with Ryan Garbutt.  The Stars faithful gave him a nice ovation, for you couldn't help but feel for this great player whose luck kept running out.  Robidas will probably move on to yet another team this offseason; most likely a contender looking for a veteran presence on their back end.  Hopefully, he will get another shot to win the Cup; because it's about time all his perseverance paid off.
 
 
Maxime Fortunus        Max played a game for the Dallas Stars, so I need to include him here, even though I won't assign him a grade.  The captain of the Texas Stars, he has played a pivotal role in their rise to the top of the AHL's Western Conference.  However, when the Dallas club required his services, they had to void his AHL contract and sign him to a one-year, two-way deal.  This makes him an Unrestricted Free Agent at the end of the season, so the upper management in Dallas has a decision to make on how to proceed in regards to his new deal.  Due to his leadership role for Texas, I tend to assume that they will bring him back to Cedar Park, but space on the 50-man professional roster is growing increasingly limited, so several factors will have to be taken into consideration.
 
 
              Okay folks, that's all for the blue liners. We'll get to the goaltenders in a couple of days and then it's on to the nitty gritty: trades, free agency, and player development.  What's not to love about the offseason?!

Christian Bussler
@c_buss15 Follow me on Twitter and follow @RiffRamSports

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